Canada Corner

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Friday, June 26, 2009

Follow up to my 2007 Predictions

You may recall that in my previous post from September 2007:
http://canadacorner.blogspot.com/2007/09/conversations-with-us-investment-banker.html

I predicted the following:

"SO, in my mind, the hit on the U.S. consumer is going to be the ultimate problem. BUT compounding the issue is the extent to which the housing industry contributes to U.S. GDP and employment:

My Research:

United States - 2005 Data

Total Contribution of the Housing Industry to the U.S. Economy:

26.3% of GDP

15,965,000 employees"

^^^^
In essence, I was trying to figure out how many workers potentially might be affected by this economic downturn.
I note that the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics - Employment Situation Summary from May 2009 (released June 5, 2009) http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm reports:

"The number of unemployed persons increased by 787,000 to 14.5 million in May..."

So, perhaps we've almost reached the bottom in terms of worker layoffs. However, the full impact on GDP will be felt progressively over the next 12 - 18 months as people's unemployment insurance benefits begin to run out.

Eventually? Inflation. Get rid of debt as soon as possible! Get into fixed rate mortgages now!!!

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